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天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银

作者:admin 发布时间:2019-10-08 05:35:41 浏览次数:218
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因为人民币仅用于约2%的国际买卖和外汇储藏,所以人民币还无法替代美元成为储藏钱银,并且该运用率远远落后于我国在全天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银球经济中16%的比例。与之比较,国际钱银基金组织的特别提款权(SDR)将是全球结算的抱负挑选。

SDR是一篮子国际主要钱银,其间,美元价值占42%、欧元31%、人民币11%、英镑8%、日元8%,是国天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银际主要钱银的加权组合。假如SDR能够用于交易结算、储藏持有和出资,国际钱银系统的压力和失衡将主动削减。

2009年,我国呼吁对国际钱银系统进行全面变革,包含更广泛地运用SDR。我国将使SDR成为本钱账户自由化的组成部分。经过香港,树立环绕SDR定价、结算和每日利率设定的中心基础设施。我国的SDR商场能够在全国范围内打开,也能够在深圳等特定区域打开,一个与国际接轨的SDR生态系统将随之开展。

对我国来说,SDR建议供给了一种以受控方法敞开金融商场的机制。因为SDR中约11%是人民币,人民币国际化将进一步开展。对国际而言,昌盛的SDR商场将是一笔名贵的财物。经过主权财富基金、养老基金和大宗商品买卖者的参加,SDR商场将向全球扩展。跟着国际钱银基金组织和SDR成员国的支撑,该扩展将会加速。这有助于树立更安稳的国际钱银系统,促进各国之间的了解与联络。

作者 | 肖耿,IMI学术委员,北京大学汇丰商学院海上丝路研究中心教授、所长,香港国际金融学会会长;马修哈里逊,香港国际金融学会高档研究员

英文原文如下:

Xiao Geng: The Dollar Shouldn’t Be the Reserve Currency, But Neither Should the Renminbi

Xiao Gengis Professor and Director of the Research Institute of Maritime Silk-Road at the HSBC Business School, Peking University, and President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance (HKIIF).

Matthew Harrisonis Senior Researcher at the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance (HKIIF).

With the renminbi used for only around 2 per cent of international transactions and reserve holdings, it’s still far from supplanting the US dollar as the currency of choice and its use lags far behind what China’s16 per cent share of the global economy would suggest. The renminbi isn’t well placed to be a reserve currency. Rather, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) special drawing rights (SDR) would be the ideal candidate for global settlements.

It’s well known that China is not by itself in sharing dissatisfaction with the US dollar-dominated international monetary system (IMS). But replacing the dollar with another national currency is not the answer. We have high hopes for the SDR — presently just an IMF reserves-accounting convention. The IMS is in near-crisis and the SDR offers a way out.

The post-Bretton Woods non-system of free-floating currencies has accommodated trade and investment expansion at the cost of recurring instability and financial crisis. The IMS is recession-biased. Trade debtor countries such as Greece are forced to restructure when most painful to do so, while creditor countries such as Germany face no sanction. The IMS is also inequity-biased. Developing countries accumulate precautionary reserves while subsidising the world’s richest economy — the United States — and propagating trade imbalances. Dollar monetary policy is intended to serve US interests, not global needs. The IMF intervenes only once approached and has limited resources and authority. A revamp of the IMS is needed.

Proposals for revamping the IMS outside of renminbi internationalisation include enlarging the role of th天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银e IMF, resurrecting Keynes’ bancor or constraining private capital flows. These have obviously gained no traction.

But renminbi internationalisation would be of limited assistance. Even if the US dollar’s share were graduall天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银y replaced by the renminbi, little would change. The world would still be dependent on a national currency managed according to nat天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银ional needs, with the same destabilising effects.

The renminbi is not replacing and should not replace the dollar. A global currency must be available to the world through continuing trade deficits. This is not a stable path for the United States or China. A global currency must have a variety of uses, but there is limited use for the renminbi outside China — where it’s still subject to strict capital account controls. Renminbi internationalisation is not consistent with China’s state-permeated system, even in the long run.

Introducing wider systematic use of the SDR would help solve the challenges of the current system. The SDR represents a basket of the world’s leading currencies, with its value based 42 per cent on the dollar, 31 per cent o天天爱彩票下载软件-肖耿:美元和人民币都不应作为储藏钱银n the euro, 11 per cent renminbi, 8 per cent sterling and 8 per cent yen — a weighted combination of the world’s major currencies. If the SDR could be used for trade settlements, reserve holdings and investments, the stresses and imbalances of the IMS would be reduced automatically.

In 2009 China called for reform of the IMS including broader use of the SDR. The IMF responded, upgrading the renminbi to become an SDR-constituent currency. There were SDR bond issues made in Shanghai, albeit still settled in renminbi. Hopes nevertheless foundered on the liquidity premium — the return investors are willing to forgo in exchange for being able to sell an asset more easily — that was needed to attract SDR buyers. It appeared as if an SDR market couldn’t gain momentum.

But the liquidity premium exists relative to the dollar; not all investors have ready access to dollars. Mainland Chinese investors, constrained by capital controls, might not perceive an SDR liquidity premium. They might even perceive a liquidity discount — an incentive to buy SDRs.

This, then, would be the way forward. China would make the SDR integral 荨麻疹症状to its capital account liberalisation. Via Hong Kong, core infrastructure around SDR pricing, settlement and daily interest rate-setting could be established. China-based issuers seeking foreign currency would get preferential approval for SDR bond issuance.

Chinese investors would be permitted unlimited holdings of SDR deposits. Banks, brokers and service providers would be able to participate in and support China’s SDR market, as would foreign players channelled through Hong Kong. Quotas would control conversion into and out of renminbi. China’s SDR market could open either nationwide or in specific regions such as Shenzhen — a national financial centreslated for bolder reform. An internationally connected SDR ecosystem would then evolve.

For China, an SDR initiative provides a mechanism for financial market opening in a controlled manner. Since the SDR is around 11 per cent renminbi, further renminbi internationalisation would be achieved at a stroke and China would gain kudos as initiator.

For the world, a flourishing SDR market would be a valuable asset. Through the participation of sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and commodity players, the SDR market would extend globally. With the IMF and SDR-constituent sovereigns providing support, progress would speed up. This would contribute to a more stable IMS and perhaps greater understanding between countries.

编译 韩子砚

修改 蒋旭

来历 东亚论坛

责编 胡晓涛、金天

监制 朱霜霜

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